AI Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Favorites: Real Madrid Fifth Ahead of Last-16 Draw
Champions League Knockout Draw: Opta’s Supercomputer Predicts Liverpool as Favorites
(Published: 21 February 2025)
The UEFA Champions League round of 16 draw kicks off at 11am GMT on Friday, with Opta’s AI supercomputer revealing Liverpool as the most likely team to lift the trophy. After simulating the tournament 10,000 times, the algorithm gives Jurgen Klopp’s side a 20.2% chance of securing their seventh European title.
English Clubs’ Chances
Three Premier League teams remain in contention, with Arsenal (16.8%) ranked second favorites. The Gunners have a 79% probability of reaching the quarter-finals, the highest among all teams. Aston Villa, despite their 1982 European Cup win, are long shots at just 1.2% to triumph this season. Manchester City’s early elimination by Real Madrid left England with reduced representation, though Liverpool and Arsenal dominate the predictions.
The knockout stage draw will set the path to May’s final in Munich.
Real Madrid’s Surprising Position
Despite knocking out Manchester City with a stunning Kylian Mbappe performance (four goals across two legs), Real Madrid sit fifth in Opta’s rankings with a 10.5% title chance. Barcelona (12.7%) and Inter Milan (12.4%) edge ahead of the Spanish giants, while PSG (8.8%) trail in sixth.
Mbappe’s heroics against City weren’t enough to boost Madrid’s favoritism.
Key Contenders
- Liverpool: Strongest odds to reach the final (35.9%) and win.
- Arsenal: Second-best for lifting the trophy but face a tricky round of 16 clash against PSV Eindhoven or Feyenoord.
- Bayer Leverkusen (4.6%) outrank Bayern Munich (4.2%), hinting at a shift in German football power.
Underdogs and Long Shots
Feyenoord have the lowest probability (0.6%), while Club Brugge (0.7%) and Dortmund (0.7%) also face slim odds. Atletico Madrid (3.8%) and Lille (1.1%) round out the mid-table predictions.
Knockout Stage Schedule
- Round of 16: March 4–12 (two legs)
- Quarter-finals: April 8–16
- Semi-finals: April 29–May 7
- Final: May 31 at Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena
Opta’s model rates Barcelona and Inter Milan above Real Madrid.
Opta’s Top 5 Title Probabilities
- Liverpool: 20.2%
- Arsenal: 16.8%
- Barcelona: 12.7%
- Inter Milan: 12.4%
- Real Madrid: 10.5%
| Full Table Highlights | Team | Quarter-Finals | Semi-Finals | Final | Winners |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 70% | 58.1% | 35.9% | 20.2% | |
| Arsenal | 79% | 49.1% | 30.3% | 16.8% | |
| Barcelona | 61.5% | 47.3% | 25.3% | 12.7% |
With the draw setting the stage for thrilling matchups, Liverpool and Arsenal carry England’s hopes, while continental giants like Madrid and PSG aim to defy the odds. The road to Munich begins now.
