"Scientists Urge 1°C Limit to Avert Mass Migration and Severe Sea-Level Rise"

New Study Warns 1.5°C Climate Target May Not Prevent Catastrophic Sea Level Rise

Since 2015, nearly every nation has aimed to limit global warming to 1.5°C under the Paris Agreement. However, scientists now warn this goal may still trigger irreversible ice melt and sea level rise, threatening coastal communities worldwide. A study by researchers from the University of Durham urges stricter limits, stating that even 1.5°C could lead to “mass inland migration.”

Antarctica’s ice sheets are critical to global sea levels. Even slight warming could accelerate their melt (Credit: Getty).

Key Findings

• 1°C vs. 1.5°C: The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, argues that 1°C above pre-industrial levels is the true safe threshold to avoid catastrophic ice loss. Current global temperatures already hover at 1.2°C.
• Accelerating Ice Loss: Ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are melting four times faster than in the 1990s, shedding 370 billion tons of ice annually. Together, they hold enough water to raise sea levels by 65 meters if fully melted.
• Irreversible Damage: Once ice sheets shrink, recovery could take millennia. By 2100, sea levels could rise by 10 mm per year—a dire threat to the 230 million people living less than 1 meter above current sea levels.

Scientists analyze ice cores to understand historical climate trends (Credit: Alamy).

Why 1.5°C Isn’t Enough
While the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target is “admirable,” researchers found no evidence it would halt sea level rise. Using climate models and data from past warm periods, they concluded that 1.5°C could lock in several meters of sea level rise over centuries.

“The problem is here to stay,” said lead author Professor Chris Stokes. “Future generations will face existential threats, even if we meet the 1.5°C goal.”

Consequences of Inaction

• Coastal Devastation: A 20 cm sea level rise by 2050 could cost coastal cities $1 trillion annually in flood damage.
• Climate Refugees: Low-lying nations like Bangladesh and island states risk becoming uninhabitable, forcing mass migration.
• Irreversibility: Ice loss triggers feedback loops. Warmer oceans melt ice shelves faster, accelerating glacier flow into the sea.

Annual ice loss from Greenland (turquoise), West Antarctica (red), and East Antarctica (black) drives rising seas (Source: Durham University).

The Path Forward
Researchers stress that every fraction of a degree matters. Returning to 1990s temperatures (1°C above pre-industrial levels) could stabilize ice sheets. This requires:

1. Slashing Emissions: Rapidly phasing out fossil fuels to achieve net-zero CO₂.
2. Global Collaboration: Strengthening Paris Agreement commitments.
3. Adaptation Planning: Protecting coastal infrastructure and communities.

“The sooner we stop warming, the easier it will be to return to safer conditions,” emphasized Professor Stokes.

The Paris Agreement: Key Goals

• Limit global warming to below 2°C, aiming for 1.5°C.
• Achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
• Support vulnerable nations in climate adaptation.

Global protests highlight the urgency of stricter climate targets (Credit: Reuters).

Bottom Line
Current policies put the world on track for 2.7°C warming by 2100—far beyond safe limits. While reversing ice loss is impossible, immediate action could prevent worst-case scenarios. As co-author Professor Rob DeConto warns: “The choices we make today will shape coastlines for millennia.”