Scholar’s Dire Forecast Sets 2025 Date for Imminent US National Fracture
Could California Spark a Second U.S. Civil War? Expert Warns of Rising Tensions
Image: Vice President JD Vance (hypothetical future president) in a scenario where California’s secession triggers conflict.
Political expert Benjamin Cohen, a professor at UC Santa Barbara, warns that California’s potential secession from the U.S. could ignite a second Civil War by 2035. In a chilling hypothetical scenario, Cohen describes escalating political polarization leading to California declaring independence, prompting President JD Vance to threaten military intervention using National Guard troops from conservative states.
Growing Divides and “Dream States”
Cohen emphasizes that identity-driven movements are reshaping American politics. “When community identity becomes a rallying cry, rationalism disappears,” he states, pointing to rising support for “dream states” where residents prioritize ideological alignment over national unity. A recent YouGov poll reveals 40% of Americans believe a civil war—likely between political parties—is “somewhat or very likely” within a decade.
Image: Professor Benjamin Cohen, author of 20 books on political economy.
Secession: Legal and Social Risks
Secession involves states rejecting federal authority to form independent nations—a move deemed illegal by the Supreme Court without unanimous state consent. Cohen warns that California’s clashes with federal policies (e.g., immigration enforcement) could push the state to act unilaterally, risking violent federal backlash. Meanwhile, 31% of poll respondents fear a fascist dictatorship in the U.S. by 2035, while 20% anticipate a communist shift.
Redrawing the Map
Cohen’s book, Dream States: A Lurking Nightmare for the World Order, highlights how political divides could fracture states internally. For example, Democratic-leaning New York City clashes with the GOP-majority upstate region. Similar tensions in California have already sparked protests, such as Los Angeles riots over federal immigration raids.
Image: Riots in Los Angeles amid conflicts over immigration enforcement.
Trump’s Warning and Escalation
Former President Trump intensified tensions by threatening to arrest California Governor Gavin Newsom, calling protesters “insurrectionists.” He deployed National Guard troops to protect ICE agents during clashes, claiming Newsom’s leadership risked civil war. A court later upheld federal control over these troops.
Image: National Guard deployed during California immigration raids.
A Fragile Future
Cohen stresses that America’s deepening divides threaten democratic stability. While full-scale secession remains unlikely, the surge in regionalism and distrust in government underscores a precarious moment. “The probability of civil war isn’t zero,” he cautions. “We can’t ignore the risks of fragmentation.”
As political battles intensify, the nation faces a critical question: Can unity withstand the pull of ideological tribalism, or will the map of America be redrawn by conflict?
