Global Warming Projected to Cut Average Global Incomes by 40% by 2100, Scientists Warn
Climate Change Could Make Global Populations 40% Poorer by 2100, Study Warns
Climate change’s economic impact may be four times worse than previously feared, according to new research. Scientists from the University of New South Wales predict that a 4°C (7.2°F) temperature rise by 2100 would leave the average person 40% poorer, with British citizens facing a staggering 46.5% drop in wealth. Even if global warming is limited to 2°C (3.6°F)—close to the current projected increase of 2.1°C (3.8°F)—global GDP per capita could fall by 16%, far exceeding prior estimates of a 1.4% decline.
Why the Discrepancy? Accounting for Global Weather
Earlier economic models focused only on local climate impacts, such as floods or crop failures within individual countries. The new study, however, incorporates how global supply chains and interconnected economies amplify losses.
Droughts in regions like Australia disrupt global trade, worsening economic losses worldwide (Image: Daily Mail).
Lead author Dr. Timothy Neal explains: “Extreme weather in one region creates cascading disruptions globally. A product on a UK shelf relies on materials from multiple continents—so a drought or flood abroad affects prices and jobs at home.”
Why Britain Faces Higher Risks
The UK’s heavy reliance on imports—like Spanish produce—makes it vulnerable. Floods or heatwaves in supplier nations disrupt goods, labor, and manufacturing. For example, climate-induced droughts in Spain could spike food prices in British supermarkets.
Supply chain chaos from extreme weather could slash UK wealth by 46.5% (Image: Daily Mail).
Extreme Weather’s Rising Toll
Climate change fuels more frequent and severe weather events. Warmer air intensifies storms, droughts, and “climate whiplash”—swings between extremes. Recent studies warn that even moderate emissions could raise global temperatures by 7°C (12.6°F) by 2200.
New models (right) show quadrupled economic damage vs. older estimates (left) (Image: Daily Mail).
Rethinking Climate Action Costs
The study overturns prior assumptions that cooler, wealthier nations like the UK would fare better. Global interdependence means no country is insulated. For instance, older models suggested climate action costs (e.g., decarbonization) might outweigh benefits. The updated analysis, however, reveals that limiting warming to 1.7°C (3°F)—closer to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal—would balance action costs with avoided damages.
Wildfires and disasters make emissions cuts economically imperative (Image: Daily Mail).
Key Takeaway: The cost of unchecked climate change far outweighs decarbonization expenses. “Reducing emissions isn’t just environmental—it’s economically rational,” says Dr. Neal.
The Paris Agreement: A Vital Target
The 2015 accord aims to limit warming to 2°C, targeting 1.5°C to avert catastrophic impacts. Goals include:
- Global emissions peaking ASAP.
- Rapid reductions using science-backed methods.
- Support for developing nations transitioning to clean energy.
Source: European Commission
By factoring in global economic ties, this study underscores the urgent need for aggressive climate policies—wealth and stability depend on it.
