NASA Concealed 20% Asteroid Collision Risk for 2032 Earth Impact
NASA’s Brief Panic Over “City-Killer” Asteroid 2024 YR4
(Images: Include a NASA diagram of asteroid orbit paths and a comparison graphic of explosion sizes vs. Hiroshima bomb.)
NASA reportedly calculated a 20% chance that the 200-foot-wide asteroid 2024 YR4 could strike Earth in 2032 during internal risk assessments but kept the finding private. Discovered in December 2024, the asteroid initially had a 1.2% collision risk on December 22, 2032, rising to 3.1% by February—earning a rare Torino Scale Level 3 (“meriting attention”) due to its potential for regional devastation.
Impact Risks and NASA’s Silence
A collision would unleash a 7.7-megaton explosion—500 times stronger than Hiroshima’s atomic bomb—blasting a 3,000-foot crater. Despite internal projections discussed at a February IAWN meeting, NASA did not publicly disclose the elevated 20% risk scenario. By late February, updated data slashed the odds to 0.005%, downgrading it to Torino Level 0 (“no threat”).
(Image: Artistic rendering of asteroid approaching Earth with key stats overlay.)
Why the Sudden Change?
Asteroid trajectories often shift as observations improve. MIT astronomer Richard P. Binzel likened the uncertainty to “pinball odds,” emphasizing that refined data typically reduces risks. NASA continues monitoring 2024 YR4, scheduling James Webb Telescope observations in March 2025 to refine its size and path.
Lunar Strike Possibility
While Earth is safe, the asteroid retains a 1.7% chance of hitting the Moon in 2032. A strike would carve a 1.2-mile crater, visible from Earth, though debris poses minimal risk. “Any moon ejecta would likely burn up in our atmosphere,” noted Catalina Sky Survey’s David Rankin.
(Image: Moon surface with crater size comparison to cities.)
Lessons and Future Steps
The episode highlights evolving asteroid tracking challenges. In 2028, 2024 YR4’s close flyby offers another study opportunity. NASA’s discretion underscores balancing public communication with ensuring accuracy amid fluid data. As Binzel stated, “Torino Zero means ‘All Clear’—there’s no looking back.”
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